How to scan for trends

A guide to conduct trend scanning for foresight work

The first step in the foresight process is to gather the information that might inform the future. This information is usually gathered and presented in the form of trends of the future. Recently at work, I created a how-to guide for trend scanning that included information about what trends are, why they are necessary for foresight work and how to go about scanning for trends.

01/ What are trends

Trends are patterns of change

Trends are patterns of dynamic or directional change taking place in the world around us. An emergence that is either increasing, decreasing, evolving or transitioning in some sense. Typically, trends fall within social, technological, ecological, economic, political, legal or values-based changes. Making sense of these emerging and ongoing changes helps futurists get an accurate picture of what is going on in the environment and what is coming up on the horizon.

What trends are not

1. Trends are not short-lived fads (something that is “trendy” or “trending”). They emerge and mature over a long time and can often be shaped by larger forces or countertrends.
2. Trends are not predictions; they are pathways to the future. They show futurists characteristics of the scenarios of the future.
3. Trends are not isolated events; they exist and evolve because they are a part of systems.
4. Trends are not necessarily information from the current; they can can be historical information as well.

02/ Why is trend research pivotal for foresight

The first step in the foresight process

Trends research is often the initial step in the foresight process. Simply put, the foresight process involves methodically determining (or even guessing) what the future of a system would look like. To do so, a good grasp of the current state is necessary. And this is where trends research helps. It shows what influences might potentially pose threats, create opportunities or significantly impact the future.

Signals/weak signals →Trends →Drivers →Future scenarios

Signals or weak signals evolve into trends. Trends evolve into drivers, and drivers are forces that significantly shape futures.

Weak signals are clues about what is possible in the future. They are generally more bizarre and disconnected. They are often misunderstood as noise but can grow into influential forces of the future. They do not have significant maturity and are often deemed as fringe thinking.

Signals are evidence about the future that can be found in the present. Signals can be spotted in scientific studies, a new product/service, new technology, a news article, a public poll, etc. Signals are moving and changing as well but are subtler because they haven’t diffused into the mainstream yet.

Trends as a synthesis of signals and weak signals.

Drivers are sweeping long-term forces that define the socio-cultural, politico-economic fabric of society. Its strength and impact shifts and changes trajectories of trends.

So, how does one tell signals, trends and drivers apart? The best way I have found is to understand them on the diffusion of ideas curve. Signals/ weak signals being least diffused and drivers being most diffused.

As a foresighter, you are looking for signals of today that can becomes trends of the future and shape the ways we operate as a society.

03/ How to structure trends research

Conducting a comprehensive trend scan requires a structure. Structure ensures that you are not missing a significant gap or area with your research topic. I recently completed a trend scan for the future of health and well-being, and the first thing I did was creating a map of the system. A systems map is a handy wayfinding tool when you inevitably get lost in the finer details of hunting for signals.

Trend scanning methods

Typically, trend scanning takes place two ways — through the emergence path and the hypothesis path. And both are necessary for foresight.

Emergence path: The emergence path is based on inductive reasoning — move from specific to general. You synthesize trends from signals as you go.

Hypothesis path: The hypothesis path is based on deductive reasoning — move from general to specific. Start with a hypothesis and validate as you go.

Here are some questions that help you frame your hypotheses. These are taken from Mars Startup Toolkit about the same topic.

• What is the area of interest (e.g., an issue, an industry space, a consumer group or other subject)?
• Which larger systems and forces shape this space?
• What are some key themes and topics to explore?
• What are the known unknowns? What do we need to learn more about?
• Where might we find the unknown unknowns? What information do we feel is missing?
• What do we know enough about already?
• What are we uncertain about?

Organizing the scan

Having an organization system for your scan will help ensure that you are looking within all domains to conduct a comprehensive scan. There are a number of organizing frameworks that you can apply to your process —

1. STEEP-V (Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological, Political and Values)
2. PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental); or
3. STEEPLE (Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological, Political, Legal and Ethical)

Use one of these frameworks as is or modify them to suit your needs. In one of my projects looking at the future of work-life balance, we used a SSTEEP-V analysis. We included an additional “S” for “Self” as it was relevant to the topic of our study, which centered on individuals at organizations.

Trend maturity

Another method for the organization is to look at trend maturity. A good scan consists of a range of trends from fringe to mature. Trend maturity needs a pre-defined rubric, based on which you organize them. The S-curve is a well-known system for examining maturity. There is also CB Insights’ proprietary Nextt Framework.

A simpler way of approaching maturity is by segmenting time into chunks and then estimating by when will said trend cause an impact on the system. The way to slice time would depend on your project but generally speaking, you may consider the following breakdown — Horizon 1: 0–2 years; Horizon 2: 2–5 years; and Horizon 3: 5–10 years.

Thinking about implications

Just creating trends may not be sufficient. A part of your research should include the implications of your findings on your research topic. Think of implications as answering the “so what” question — a justification for why the trend is essential for the topic. While considering implications think about the impact on stakeholders, customers/users, value creation, revenue model, cost structures, regular system interactions or functions and many more.

04/ Where to look for trends

Search for emerging trends in places you don’t frequent. Both primary and secondary research work well for trends scanning. Here are some suggested sources: national and global news, industry specific news, podcasts, blogs, newsletters, social media, online forums, art and design, popular media and observational research.